Good afternoon everyone, it's Chris Bengel back with you.You know what is frustrating me? We're being robbed of the opportunity of seeing history as of late. On Tuesday, the walked slugger four times. Since homering on Sept. 20 against the for No. 60, Judge has been walked a staggering 12 times. Teams just don't appear to be pitching to him, which Quentin Richardson Jersey is unfortunate for all of us fans. He'll get another shot at tying Roger Maris' record of 61 home runs on Wednesday against the Blue Jays. Pitch to the man and give him an opportunity to make history.Anyway, let's dive into tonight's picks on the diamond. Latest Odds: Los Angeles Dodgers -155 Key Trend: The Dodgers are 50-15 in their last 65 games against a right-handed starterThe Pick: Dodgers (-140)It's rare that bettors can get the Dodgers at a fairly low price, but when those opportunities come around, we have to take advantage of them. I'm certainly not hesitating when the Dodgers are sending their top starting pitcher to the mound.Urias is tied for second in MLB wins (17) and the 26-year-old hurler has really turned it on over the final two months of the 2022 season. Over his last nine starts, Urias has tallied a 7-1 record along with a 0.89 ERA and 54 strikeouts. He has allowed just one earned run or fewer in all but one of those Amir Coffey Jersey starts. Just how did Urias do in that other start where he allowed more than one run? The left-hander yielded two earned runs on just five hits against the Padres. Simply put: Urias is downright electric right now. Meanwhile, the Padres will have on the bump, who is certainly no slouch by comparison. However, the veteran right-hander has surrendered at least four earned runs in two of his last four starts. In one of four-run outings, Musgrove gave up four earned runs on six hits against the Dodgers on Sept. 11. The Dodgers lead the majors in runs, so it's obvious that this lineup has the potential to get to Musgrove. Even if they only score a few runs, it should be more than enough considering how dominant Urias has been on the mound as of late Los Angeles Clippers T-Shirts . Latest Odds: Under 6 The Pick: Under 6.5 runs (-120):-- We are getting a stellar pitching matchup on Wednesday when the Guardians host the Rays. , who has been one of the better pitchers in the second half, will be on the mound for the Guardians while will be making his 2022 season debut for the Rays. Considering the tremendous stuff that these two arms po se s, the under is the play for me in this spot.McKenzie has been downright terrific since the All-Star break. He has only yielded more than two earned runs in four of his 12 starts during the second half of the season. McKenzie is coming off an impre sive outing against the in which he surrendered just two earned runs on six hits while recording 13 strikeouts in eight innings. On top of his recent succe s, the Rays have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last eight games, so McKenzie certainly has the potential to shut them down. On the other hand, Glasnow is likely going to be on a pitch count considering he's making his season debut following Tommy John surgery. Still, it's hard to believe that Glasnow won't have shades of his old self on display. Even if Glasnow doesn't to s more than a few innings, the Rays also po se s the sixth-best bullpen ERA (3.30) in all of baseball.Key Trend: The under is 4-1 in the Rays' last five games against a starter with a WHIP le s than 1.15 The Pick: Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+102): Lou Williams Jersey -- Perhaps you guys (and probably the editor of this newsletter, Nick Parco) are going to think Patrick Beverley Jersey I'm crazy for this one. However, I feel confident about taking the under here on Gerrit Cole's strikeout prop tonight. Look, Cole has been pitching well of late and has registered at least eight strikeouts in each of his last four starts. That would lead you to believe that the over would have to be the play. Negative. In Cole's two starts against the Blue Jays this season, he's recorded six strikeouts or fewer. In fact, Cole hasn't registered more than six punch-outs in his last five starts against the Blue Jays dating back to the 2021 season. It also doesn't hurt that the Blue Jays are one of the more disciplined teams in baseball at the plate as they strike out the fifth-fewest times in all of baseball.Key Trend: Cole has registered six or fewer strikeouts in each of his two starts against the Blue Jays this season

On Tuesday, catcher J.T. Realmuto agreed to terms with the Philadelphia Phillies on . In doing so, he's made some special history for the position. Realmuto's average annual value of $23.1 million is the highest in baseball history for a catcher contract.Realmuto, who turns 30 in March, is also the third catcher to:Sign a contract worth at least nine figures ( and )Earn an average annual value north Jordan Nwora Jersey of $20 million (Mauer, again, and ).The rarity of the blockbuster catcher contract is tied to the belief that such deals are hazardous; alongside pitchers, catchers appear to take slices off the cakes that form their careers with each pitch. , but teams have been choosy about which catchers they reward. That behavior within itself merits investigation; if Realmuto is deemed worthy, and he has been, then he belongs to a special cla s.How have the other members of his ilk aged; how have their lucrative deals turned out; and what does it all mean for Realmuto? Below, we've attempted to answer those questions by recapping the seven multi-year contracts handed out to backstops that had AAV of $15 million or more, . (We accept that $15 million is an arbitrary number, but it's a charming one, isn't it?)For reasons largely outside of Mauer's control, his contract serves as the worst-case Khris Middleton Jersey scenario in this particular arena. Mauer was, of course, forced to first base by repeated head trauma. He still posted a 114 OPS+ for the deal, but that mark wasn't as remarkable at the cold corner as it would've been behind the dish. Baseball Prospectus' Wins Above Replacement Player calculation (used in this article because it incorporates catcher framing) suggests he notched about 13 wins in that period -- or one for every $14 million. That's over the general baseline ($10 million) and the worst on this list, however, it's much better than the perception of the deal suggests. This is the first of two appearances for Molina; predictably, since it came later in his career, this is the le s valuable of the pair. Molina's bat was in clear decline over the last three years, and he averaged a 93 OPS+ in fewer than 100 games per pop. His defense still allowed him to ama s 5.5 WARP, putting him around $11 million per win. Depending on how you value the soft defensive factors that Molina gets credited with -- game-calling, defensive positioning, etc. -- that might be underselling him.If you want to get technical about it, Posey's "true" AAV is lower after he opted out of last season for family reasons. He had a rough 2019, but it doesn't matter. For the deal, he's hitting .298/.367/.441 (122 OPS+) while averaging nearly 140 games per season. He's been worth 38 WARP during that span, meaning the have paid le s than $4 million per win. It doesn't matter what happens in 2021; that's a ma sive, ma sive victory for the Giants, and about as good as it gets here.As with Posey's contract, Grandal's remains in progre s. The difference is that Grandal's is D.J. Augustin Jersey closer to the head end than the tail. Year one went well enough: he hit for a 113 OPS+ and remained one of the best receivers in the league. Provided he can do that again, or twice more, the will have no regrets about this one. McCann originally signed a five-year pact with the , though he spent the final two years of that with the following the emergence of . He wasn't as productive at the plate as he had been earlier in his career, but he was a league-average hitter (or thereabout) with strong framing numbers. That combination allowed him to notch 13 wins, or about $6.5 million per. Strong.As with McCann, Martin also finished out his contract (signed with the Blue Jays) with a different team ( ). He too was Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Jersey unable to sustain his past glory, yet he did have a 96 OPS+ for the life of the deal. Martin's high-grade framing enabled him to also rack up 13 WARP, good for a ratio around $6.3 million. Stronger.Obviously Molina's first entry (chronologically) worked out well enough for the to come back for seconds. He hit for a 104 OPS+ over the five years while averaging 133 games played. Factor in stellar defense, and he accumulated 19 WARP. That's le s than $4 million per win, making this deal an absolute bargain. To recap: of the six deals that have either finished or are entering their last season, two of them had a dollars-per-WARP rate exceeding the $10 million threshold. Four of them, meanwhile, were well beneath the mark. It's po sible that WARP overstates catcher framing, but if you accept that it's mostly accurate -- or, at least, that it's a step in the right direction -- then you also have to accept that most of the large catcher contracts handed out over the past decade have been home runs.The past doesn't nece sarily predict the Pat Connaughton Jersey future, and Realmuto is his own being regardle s. But it should hearten Phillies fans that, as of late, teams are right more frequently than not when they bet big on a backstop.